The Current State of the Iron Phosphate Market
The iron phosphate market continues to demonstrate remarkable stability in mid-2025, characterized by loose supply conditions despite ongoing production capacity constraints. Several manufacturers are engaged in maintenance operations and capacity expansion initiatives, which have slightly affected available production capacity across the industry. However, these constraints have not significantly impacted overall market supply, which remains abundant enough to meet current demand levels.
Industry analysts note that this stability persists even as production costs face moderate upward pressure. While industrial-grade MAP and phosphoric acid prices have remained relatively steady, ferrous sulphate prices continue at elevated levels, creating baseline cost pressures for manufacturers. Perhaps more concerning is the recent uptick in hydrogen peroxide prices, which have increased due to high summer temperatures affecting production and storage conditions.
"The hydrogen peroxide cost increases are creating moderate yet manageable pressure on iron phosphate production expenses, though not enough to trigger significant price adjustments from most suppliers," explains a senior market analyst at SMM.
Despite these cost pressures, most iron phosphate manufacturers have maintained stable price quotations, indicating confidence in their ability to absorb these incremental cost increases without disrupting market equilibrium. This stability provides a solid foundation for downstream industries, particularly those producing LFP (lithium iron phosphate) batteries for energy storage applications.
How is the Lithium Market Performing?
Lithium Ore Market Trends
The lithium ore market has shown modest price increases week-over-week, influenced by a complex interplay of factors. The market appears caught between sideways movement in lithium carbonate spot prices and notable increases in lithium carbonate futures, creating an interesting dynamic where hedging opportunities have improved for lithium chemical plants and traders.
Market participation has increased compared to previous periods, with more active inquiry and purchasing activities observed across the sector. However, this improved activity coexists with an intensified wait-and-see sentiment that has created significant downward resistance for prices.
Key factors influencing current lithium ore pricing include:
- Improving futures market conditions providing better hedging options
- Increased inquiry activity from processors and traders
- Persistent supply chain constraints in certain regions
- Cautious downstream procurement strategies limiting upside potential
Lithium Carbonate Market Conditions
The domestic lithium carbonate spot market continues its upward trend, with rising price centers despite relatively low spot trade activity. This price movement appears somewhat disconnected from fundamental demand, as downstream material plants show insufficient restocking willingness, with most adopting cautious procurement strategies.
Market support comes primarily from rigid demand among certain downstream enterprises, coupled with expectations for improved production schedules in July. This has contributed to recovering market sentiment despite persistent supply-side pressures with high lithium carbonate production rates and loose industry inventory conditions limiting upside potential.
"The irrational rebound in the futures market is creating a concerning deviation from spot fundamentals, introducing short-term capital-induced volatility risks that require vigilance from all market participants," warns a senior lithium market specialist.
Looking forward, analysts expect a continuation of the current low-level fluctuation pattern, with upward trend sustainability dependent on actual demand recovery. Should demand recovery fall short of expectations, renewed downward pressure could emerge in coming weeks.
Lithium Hydroxide Market Assessment
Lithium hydroxide has demonstrated a significantly slower price decline compared to previous weeks, reflecting shifting market dynamics. Some enterprises have increased production due to capacity expansion efforts, though downstream demand growth remains limited. This creates a situation where basic production needs are largely satisfied through long-term agreements and customer-supplied materials, resulting in fewer additional spot order purchases.
The market has found support from recovering lithium ore prices, which have strengthened upstream cost structures. This dynamic suggests limited downside potential in the short term, as upward pressure from lithium industry innovations and lithium ore prices creates a pricing floor for lithium hydroxide.
What's Happening in the Cobalt Market?
Refined Cobalt Market Conditions
The refined cobalt market has experienced slight price decreases in recent weeks, reflecting complex supply-demand dynamics. Refined cobalt smelters have maintained their long-term contract supplies while reducing spot order quotations. Ex-factory prices have remained largely unchanged, influenced by production costs that provide a pricing floor for manufacturers.
Interestingly, price declines in the domestic futures market, triggered by market news disruptions, have influenced trader quotations and transaction prices, which now largely follow futures market trends rather than spot fundamentals.
Key demand factors currently weighing on the market include:
- High social inventory levels of refined cobalt
- Weakened downstream demand during high temperature periods
- Just-in-time procurement strategies among most downstream producers
- Sluggish actual transaction activity across all market segments
Looking ahead, analysts expect a continued price fluctuation pattern, with future trends largely dependent on cost increases and the pace of social inventory digestion. The market appears to be seeking equilibrium between current oversupply and potential supply constraints from Central African production regions.
Cobalt Intermediate Products
In contrast to refined cobalt, cobalt intermediate products have seen continued rises in spot prices. Early-week transactions occurred near 12.3, though rising cobalt salt prices have prevented transaction closures at the 12.3-12.4 price levels in subsequent trading days.
Most enterprises have adopted a bullish outlook and suspended quotations, while some suppliers have implemented further price increases. This positive price momentum exists despite challenging conditions for smelters, who face production cost losses and weak downstream demand.
Many enterprises are focusing on inventory consumption rather than new production, leading to limited market transactions due to price expectation gaps between buyers and sellers. Industry insiders predict raw material shortages will emerge due to DRC extension policies, creating sustained upward price momentum that could potentially inhibit downstream demand if prices rise too rapidly.
How Are Cobalt Salt Markets Evolving?
Cobalt Sulphate Market
The cobalt sulphate market has experienced slight price increases, with market transactions rising to the 49,000-52,000 yuan/mt range. Many enterprises report transactions occurring near the 50,000 yuan/mt level, while some large enterprises have completed transactions approaching 52,000 yuan/mt.
Enterprises have maintained bullish sentiment, with gradual quotation increases for new goods from smelters and price increases for existing inventory from some traders. This positive price momentum exists despite no significant improvement in ternary materials orders, reflecting market confidence in underlying fundamentals rather than current demand conditions.
Demand patterns show interesting differentiation across sectors:
- No significant improvement in ternary orders
- Market wait-and-see approach and inventory digestion among many enterprises
- Better pricing opportunities for Co3O4 and traditional chemical enterprises
- Some market purchases from traditional chemical sectors
- Suspended refined cobalt purchases due to poor economics
Market activity has improved compared to previous weeks, with increased inquiry willingness and actual transactions. Analysts anticipate a continued strong trend due to rising raw material costs, though this may eventually pressure downstream demand if price increases continue.
Cobalt Chloride Market
Current cobalt chloride quotations have stabilized at 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt, with increased market transaction volumes observed. Smelters exhibit heavy wait-and-see sentiment with few market transactions, while downstream enterprises maintain sufficient inventory levels.
Despite active market inquiries, both buyers and sellers remain cautious, with actual transactions centering around 62,000 yuan/mt, though some transactions have reached 63,000 yuan/mt. Short-term price stability is expected within the 61,000-63,000 yuan/mt range as the market seeks equilibrium.
Co3O4 Market
The Co3O4 market presents an interesting picture with current quotations at 200,000-220,000 yuan/mt. Some enterprises have begun suspending quotations, reflecting uncertainty about future pricing directions. Wait-and-see attitudes prevail across both upstream and downstream segments, resulting in limited actual transactions beyond long-term contract deliveries.
Shipping expectations range between 210,000-230,000 yuan/mt, though few actual transactions of high-priced Co3O4 have been reported. The long-term price trajectory will be heavily influenced by global cobalt production trends, with industry inventory support until December serving as a key factor affecting price trends.
What's the Status of the Nickel Sulphate Market?
The SMM cobalt and lithium morning meeting summary revealed that the battery-grade nickel sulphate index price currently stands at 27,227 yuan/mt, with quotations ranging between 27,200-27,640 yuan/mt. The market has experienced a slight week-over-week average price increase, though overall conditions remain subdued.
Demand conditions reveal relatively sufficient inventories at downstream precursor plants, with some manufacturer restocking activity observed. However, overall market inquiry and transaction sentiment remain weak, with limited improvement in price acceptance due to persistent demand concerns.
On the supply side, overall upstream shipping sentiment remains weak, with some nickel salt plants planning production cuts or operation suspensions due to weak order demand. Some nickel salt plants with low finished product inventories have implemented slightly higher quotations, though this has not significantly altered overall market dynamics.
"The short-term outlook suggests price stability due to continued sluggish downstream demand and weak upstream shipping sentiment, creating a balanced but uninspiring market environment," notes an SMM nickel sulphate analyst.
How Are Cathode Materials Performing?
Ternary Cathode Precursor Market
The ternary cathode precursor market has seen slight price increases, supported by stable cobalt sulphate and manganese sulphate prices. Increased cobalt sulphate prices have driven up absolute precursor prices, though spot order discount coefficients have not experienced significant adjustment. Downstream battery cell manufacturers continue to maintain bargaining power, resulting in weak response to cobalt sulphate price increases and stable overall discount strategies.
Demand patterns show increased domestic NEV market demand for 6-series products and slight growth in overseas market demand for 8-series products. Order concentration among top-tier manufacturers continues, while the consumer market remains sluggish.
Looking ahead, analysts expect a slight increase in production schedules due to July restocking, though limited long-term upward price support is anticipated due to weak terminal demand.
Ternary Cathode Material Market
Ternary cathode materials have shown slight upward price trends across 5-series, 6-series, and 8-series materials. This movement occurs amid relatively stable nickel sulphate and manganese sulphate prices, significant increases in cobalt sulphate and lithium carbonate prices, and slight continuous decline in lithium hydroxide prices.
Demand patterns show interesting differentiation:
- Concentrated domestic NEV market demand for 6-series products
- Order flow primarily directed to top-tier manufacturers
- Sluggish terminal automobile sales affecting overall volumes
- Material production maintaining original long-term contract supplies
- Potential short-term sales stimulation in overseas NEV markets due to upcoming electric vehicle tax credit policy cancellation
- Concerning long-term demand prospects for ternary power batteries in US market
- Possible impacts on some domestic cathode material suppliers dependent on export markets
Industry participants identify customer structure optimization as a key strategy for market share protection, with expected production increases driven by July restocking. However, limited long-term growth potential exists due to prolonged supply surplus conditions.
LFP Market
The LFP market has continued its price increases from the previous week, with an overall rise of approximately 325 yuan/mt. This movement has been driven by continuous lithium carbonate price increases of about 1,350 yuan/mt, highlighting the close correlation between lithium raw material and LFP pricing.
No significant market structural changes have emerged, with generally stable material plant production observed. Top-tier enterprises maintain stable production rhythms with some increases, while small and medium-sized plants have slowed production due to order limitations.
Demand segmentation reveals an expected decrease in power battery orders, while energy storage system (ESS) demand shows good performance driving overall demand growth, though this growth remains limited. Recent battery metals trends indicate battery cell manufacturer tendering has progressed relatively smoothly, though expectations for intensified price competition in H2 2025 persist.
What's Happening in the LCO Market?
The LCO market has experienced significant price increases due to raw material cost changes, with continued rises in battery-grade lithium carbonate prices and strong upward sentiment in Co3O4 prices due to DRC policies. This has created a challenging cost environment for LCO producers.
Supply dynamics show high shipping price quotations from Co3O4 enterprises, though LCO cathode plants demonstrate low purchase willingness for high-priced Co3O4 due to margin concerns. This creates tension between raw material suppliers and cathode manufacturers that may eventually require price adjustments at the finished product level.
On the demand side, the market has entered the off-season for terminal demand, resulting in decreased demand for LCO cathode materials. This seasonal weakness, combined with rising input costs, creates margin pressure for LCO producers who face resistance to passing through these cost increases to downstream customers.
"Significant LCO price increases appear inevitable given the rising Co3O4 and lithium carbonate prices, though the timing and magnitude of these adjustments will depend on demand recovery and inventory positions," suggests a market analyst specializing in cobalt materials.
How Is the Anode Material Market Performing?
Artificial Graphite
Artificial graphite anode materials have shown stabilized prices after a period of volatility. This stability comes amid slight warming of small energy storage system market demand, which has partially offset the demand gap created by NEV market production slowdowns. This has resulted in relatively stable demand-side performance despite challenges in the automotive sector.
Supply conditions remain abundant, though stopped decline and rebound in anode raw material costs have provided effective price support for artificial graphite. The price stagnation results from the interplay of multiple factors, including:
- Stabilizing raw material costs creating price floors
- Moderate improvement in ESS demand offsetting automotive weakness
- Production discipline among major manufacturers
- Competitive pricing pressure from overcapacity concerns
Analysts expect short-term price stability despite ongoing overcapacity challenges, with continued stabilization of raw material prices providing support for current price levels.
Natural Graphite
Natural graphite anode materials have maintained a stable price trend, supported by coordinated supply-demand dynamics and cost-side factors. However, the sector faces significant technological challenges as accelerated innovation in artificial graphite anode materials and gradual capacity expansion from vapor-deposited silicon-carbon producers shift downstream client procurement preferences toward alternative materials.
This technological evolution creates dual pressures for natural graphite producers:
- Cost reduction demands from customers seeking economic advantages
- Performance upgrade requirements to compete with advancing alternatives
These pressures may lead to compression of market demand for natural graphite anodes, with expected sustained downward price pressure due to unfavorable supply-demand patterns and ongoing technological iterations.
What's the Current State of Separator and Electrolyte Markets?
Separator Market
The separator market exhibits generally stable prices, with wet-process separator mainstream quotations for 5μm at 1.35 yuan/m², 7μm at 0.76 yuan/m², and 9μm at 0.74 yuan/m². Dry-process separators show mainstream quotations for 12μm at 0.45 yuan/m² and 16μm at 0.44 yuan/m².
The supply-demand balance reflects extended lead times for capacity releases, with unabsorbed accumulated inventory perpetuating supply surplus conditions. Structural demand divergence has emerged, with weaker-than-expected power battery demand offset by stronger-than-anticipated ESS demand. This has resulted in a slight month-over-month increase in overall industry demand, though not sufficient to substantially reduce inventory overhangs.
Analysts expect stable prices with limited fluctuations in the near term as the market works through existing inventory positions while waiting for demand acceleration from automotive and energy storage applications.
Electrolyte Market
The electrolyte market has experienced declining prices driven by eased cost-side pressures from falling LiPF6 prices, while solvent and additive prices have remained steady. This has reduced overall production costs for electrolyte manufacturers, allowing for more competitive pricing.
Demand patterns show slightly contracted power battery requirements month-over-month due to weakened automaker production sentiment, though growth momentum in overseas ESS demand has contributed to a minor aggregate demand increase. Electrolyte producers have adopted "produce-based-on-sales" strategies to manage inventory levels amid persistent market lethargy and structural overcapacity.
Volume discount tactics have become widespread across the industry as manufacturers compete for limited demand. Analysts expect rangebound price fluctuations to continue as the market balances cost reductions against capacity utilization needs.
How is the Sodium-Ion Battery Market Developing?
The sodium-ion battery market has shown notable improvement, with NFPP (sodium iron manganese phosphate) remaining the dominant cathode material. Robust order demand and continuous price declines have characterized the NFPP segment, reflecting both technology maturation and economies of scale.
In contrast, layered oxide materials have experienced a significant year-over-year drop in shipments, with low-price sales strategies prevalent among producers. Many manufacturers appear to have reached practical limits in cost compression, leading to stabilized layered oxide sodium-ion cell prices.
"Emerging production line defects have become a recycling focus during this period of gradual capacity release, highlighting the technology maturation challenges facing sodium-ion battery manufacturers," notes a battery technology specialist.
Market advancement depends heavily on balancing demand growth against cost reduction imperatives. The industry shows segmented performance divergence, highlighting emerging challenges as the technology moves from early adoption to broader commercialization phases.
What's Happening in the Battery Recycling Sector?
The battery recycling sector has been influenced by rising cobalt sulphate and lithium carbonate prices, while nickel sulphate prices have oscillated without sustained deman
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