China’s National Bureau of Statistics Reports 6.8% Industrial Growth

What Does the Latest NBS Data Reveal About China's Industrial Growth?

China's industrial sector demonstrated remarkable resilience in June 2025, with the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) reporting a robust 6.8% year-on-year increase in value-added industrial output for enterprises above designated size. This performance exceeds the cumulative growth rate of 6.4% recorded for the first half of 2025, indicating an acceleration of industrial activity as the year progresses.

The month-on-month growth of 0.50% compared to May 2025 reflects continued momentum despite global economic headwinds. Perhaps most impressively, these figures represent the sixth consecutive month of growth above 5% for China's industrial sector in 2025.

"The June data demonstrates China's economic resilience and the effectiveness of targeted industrial policies implemented earlier this year," notes the NBS report.

Export delivery value reached ¥1,367.6 billion in June, representing a nominal growth of 4.0% year-on-year. This growth in export value, though moderate, signals sustained international demand for Chinese industrial products despite ongoing tariff impact on markets.

For context, enterprises "above designated size" in China refers to industrial companies with annual main business revenue of at least 20 million yuan (approximately $2.8 million USD), making this dataset a comprehensive representation of China's formal industrial economy.

How Did Different Industrial Sectors Perform in June 2025?

The NBS data reveals varied performance across China's industrial landscape, with manufacturing emerging as the clear leader among the three main industrial categories:

Sectoral Breakdown:

• Mining industry: Achieved a solid 6.1% year-on-year increase, supported by strong commodity prices and domestic demand for raw materials
• Manufacturing: Posted an impressive 7.4% year-on-year growth, outperforming the overall industrial average
• Utilities sector (electricity, heat, gas, and water production and supply): Recorded a more modest 1.8% year-on-year increase, reflecting challenges in the energy transition

When analyzed by ownership structure, joint-stock enterprises led the pack with growth rates exceeding the national average:

The NBS data indicates that 36 of 41 major industrial categories showed positive year-on-year growth in June, demonstrating the broad-based nature of China's industrial expansion. This widespread growth suggests that China's industrial resilience isn't limited to a few standout sectors but represents a comprehensive economic strength.

The performance gap between state-controlled enterprises (5.7%) and joint-stock enterprises (7.1%) highlights the efficiency advantages often seen in mixed-ownership models that combine state backing with market discipline.

Which Industries Are Leading China's Industrial Growth?

June 2025 data reveals several clear frontrunners in China's industrial landscape, with technology-intensive and new energy-related manufacturing sectors posting the strongest results:

Top-Performing Industries (June 2025)

• Electrical machinery and equipment manufacturing: 11.4% YoY growth, driven by automation equipment and green energy infrastructure components
• Automobile manufacturing: 11.4% YoY growth, with new energy vehicles (NEVs) playing a significant role
• Computer, communication, and electronic equipment: 11.0% YoY growth, reflecting China's growing dominance in consumer electronics
• Non-ferrous metal smelting and processing: 9.2% YoY growth, supporting electric vehicle battery production and renewable energy infrastructure
• General equipment manufacturing: 7.8% YoY growth, indicating broad industrial capacity expansion
• Chemical raw materials and products: 7.5% YoY growth, essential for various downstream manufacturing processes

The exceptional performance of the non-ferrous metals sector (9.2% growth) is particularly noteworthy as it directly supports China's electric vehicle and renewable energy ambitions. Copper, aluminum, and lithium processing have seen substantial capacity increases to meet rising demand from battery manufacturers and electronics producers.

In contrast, the non-metallic mineral products sector contracted slightly (-0.1% YoY), primarily due to weakness in China's property sector. This underperformance in construction materials manufacturing reflects ongoing challenges in real estate development.

"The divergence between construction-related industries and high-tech manufacturing illustrates China's economic transition priorities," according to the NBS commentary.

What Do Production Volumes Reveal About Industrial Activity?

Beyond percentage growth rates, the absolute production volumes reported by the NBS provide concrete insights into China's industrial operations:

Key Production Metrics (June 2025)

The stellar performance of NEV production (+18.8%) stands in sharp contrast to the decline in cement output (-5.3%), highlighting China's shifting industrial priorities. With NEVs now accounting for nearly 44% of all vehicle production in China, the transformation of the automotive sector is accelerating rapidly.

The robust growth in crude oil processing (+8.5%) might seem counterintuitive amid China's energy transition minerals goals, but this reflects strong demand for petrochemicals rather than fuels. The ethylene production increase (+5.8%) confirms this trend, as petrochemicals serve as key inputs for everything from packaging to electronics components.

Steel production growth remained modest (+1.8%), indicating discipline in a sector often characterized by overcapacity concerns. This moderate growth aligns with China's focus on upgrading rather than simply expanding steel production.

How Is China's Overall Economic Performance in H1 2025?

The industrial figures form part of a broader economic narrative for China in the first half of 2025, with GDP growth showing resilience despite domestic and international challenges:

H1 2025 Economic Performance Highlights

• GDP growth: 5.3% YoY for H1 2025, with Q1 at 5.4% and Q2 moderating slightly to 5.2%
• Primary industry (agriculture): 3.7% YoY growth
• Secondary industry (manufacturing and construction): 5.3% YoY growth
• Tertiary industry (services): 5.5% YoY growth
• Quarter-on-quarter GDP growth in Q2: 1.1%, indicating continued expansion

The tertiary industry's slightly stronger performance (5.5%) compared to secondary industry (5.3%) reflects China's ongoing economic rebalancing toward services. However, the secondary sector remains crucial for employment, with an estimated 88.6 million workers in formal manufacturing positions as of June 2025.

The quarter-on-quarter growth of 1.1% in Q2 translates to an annualized rate of approximately 4.5%, suggesting that while year-on-year comparisons remain strong, the sequential momentum has moderated somewhat from earlier quarters.

Fixed asset investment increased by 3.9% year-on-year in H1 2025, with infrastructure investment up 5.4% as government-led projects continued to provide economic support. However, this was partially offset by the continued contraction in real estate investment.

What's Driving Manufacturing Sector Growth?

Manufacturing has emerged as the backbone of China's industrial expansion, with technology-intensive segments leading the charge:

Manufacturing Growth Drivers

• Equipment manufacturing: Impressive 10.2% YoY growth in H1 2025, reflecting China's push toward industrial upgrading
• High-tech manufacturing: Strong 9.5% YoY growth in H1 2025, outpacing the broader manufacturing sector
• 3D printing equipment production: Remarkable 43.1% YoY increase, revolutionizing prototyping and small-batch manufacturing
• NEV production: Continued momentum with 36.2% YoY increase in H1 2025
• Industrial robot production: Substantial 35.6% YoY increase, supporting factory automation initiatives

The stellar performance of industrial robot production (+35.6%) reflects China's aggressive push toward smart manufacturing. According to industry innovation trends, China installed approximately 283,000 industrial robots in 2024, and 2025 installations are on track to exceed 320,000 units.

Manufacturing Investment Trends

Investment patterns further illustrate China's focus on technological advancement:

• Overall manufacturing investment: Solid 7.5% YoY increase in H1 2025
• High-tech manufacturing investment growth:
  • Information service industry: 37.4% YoY
  • Aviation, spacecraft, and equipment: 26.3% YoY
  • Computer and office equipment: 21.5% YoY

The dramatic investment growth in information services (+37.4%) aligns with China's technology self-reliance strategy, as outlined in the 14th Five-Year Plan. Domestic semiconductor production capacity has expanded by approximately 22% in the past 12 months, though advanced node production remains a challenge.

How Are Consumer Markets Performing?

Consumer spending shows moderate but steady growth, with technological and lifestyle categories outperforming traditional retail segments:

Consumer Market Metrics (H1 2025)

• Total retail sales: 24,545.8 billion yuan (+5.0% YoY)
• Urban retail sales: 21,305 billion yuan (+5.0% YoY)
• Rural retail sales: 3,240.9 billion yuan (+4.9% YoY)
• Online retail sales: 7,429.5 billion yuan (+8.5% YoY)
• Physical goods online sales: 6,119.1 billion yuan (+6.0% YoY)

The significantly faster growth in online retail sales (+8.5%) compared to overall retail (+5.0%) demonstrates the continued digital transformation of China's consumer economy. E-commerce now accounts for approximately 30.3% of total retail sales, up from 29.2% in 2024.

Consumer Goods Growth Leaders

Certain product categories showed exceptional strength:

• Sports and entertainment goods: +22.2% YoY
• Household appliances: +30.7% YoY, boosted by energy-efficient appliance subsidy programs
• Audio and video equipment: +25.4% YoY
• Communication equipment: +24.1% YoY
• Furniture: +22.9% YoY

The remarkable growth in household appliance sales (+30.7%) has been significantly influenced by government "trade-in" programs promoting energy-efficient models. These programs provided subsidies of 13-15% for qualifying purchases, stimulating approximately 87 billion yuan in replacement sales during H1 2025.

The strong performance in sports and entertainment goods (+22.2%) reflects changing consumer priorities, with health and lifestyle purchases gaining prominence in China's consumption patterns.

What Challenges Is China's Economy Facing?

Despite the positive industrial growth figures, the NBS report acknowledges several significant challenges facing China's economic development:

Current Economic Challenges

• Insufficient domestic demand: Highlighted as an ongoing concern requiring policy attention
• External uncertainties: Global economic and trade tensions creating headwinds for export-oriented industries
• Real estate sector weakness: Real estate development investment declined by 11.2% YoY, continuing a multi-year correction
• Price pressures: Consumer price index (CPI) decreased by 0.1% YoY in H1 2025, indicating deflationary concerns
• Industrial producer price deflation: Ex-factory prices fell by 2.8% YoY in H1 2025, suggesting overcapacity in some sectors

The continued decline in real estate investment (-11.2%) is directly reflected in building materials production, with cement output falling 5.3% in June. The property sector correction has now extended for nearly four years, though the pace of decline has moderated from the 13.6% contraction seen in 2024.

Producer price deflation (-2.8%) presents a particular challenge for industrial profitability, as manufacturers face squeezed margins despite increased production volumes. This price weakness stems from both domestic capacity expansion and global copper supply forecast moderation.

"The foundation for economic recovery still needs to be consolidated," states the NBS report, acknowledging that "more proactive and effective macro policies" are required to address these challenges.

How Is Employment and Income Growth Trending?

Employment indicators show moderate improvement, while income growth remains solid, particularly in rural areas:

Employment and Income Metrics

• Average surveyed urban unemployment rate: 5.2% in H1 2025 (down 0.1 percentage points from Q1)
• June unemployment rate: 5.0%, showing gradual improvement
• Per capita disposable income: 21,840 yuan (+5.4% YoY in real terms)
• Urban residents' income: 28,844 yuan (+4.7% YoY in real terms)
• Rural residents' income: 11,936 yuan (+6.2% YoY in real terms)

The stronger income growth in rural areas (+6.2%) compared to urban regions (+4.7%) represents a positive development for China's common prosperity goals. This rural income growth has been supported by agricultural modernization initiatives and expanding rural e-commerce opportunities.

Youth unemployment (16-24 age group, excluding students) remains elevated at 13.2% in June, though this represents an improvement from the 14.5% recorded in January 2025. The manufacturing sector added approximately 780,000 new jobs in H1 2025, helping to absorb new workforce entrants.

Total migrant worker population reached 191.39 million by mid-2025, representing a modest 0.7% YoY increase. The modest growth in this figure reflects both urbanization trends and changing demographics in China's workforce.

What's the Outlook for China's Industrial Growth?

The NBS report indicates that while China's economy has shown resilience in H1 2025, continued policy support will be needed to maintain growth momentum:

Future Growth Considerations

• Policy support: The NBS emphasized the need for "more proactive and effective macro policies" to sustain growth
• Domestic circulation focus: Strengthening internal economic cycles to counter external uncertainties
• High-quality development: Emphasis on sustainable and high-quality growth rather than just growth rates
• Structural optimization: Continued transition toward high-tech and advanced manufacturing
• Consumption stimulation: Policies to boost domestic consumption and demand

Recent policy announcements suggest China will maintain an accommodative monetary stance, with the People's Bank of China having reduced the reserve requirement ratio by 0.25 percentage points in May 2025. Additional fiscal support measures are expected in the second half of the year, potentially including accelerated infrastructure investment and consumption vouchers.

The Ministry of Industry and Information Technology has announced plans to further promote industrial digitalization, with targeted subsidies for small and medium-sized enterprises adopting smart manufacturing technologies. These initiatives align with the "high-quality development" goals emphasized in the NBS outlook.

"China will continue to strengthen the domestic great circulation and respond to external uncertainties with high-quality development," concludes the NBS report.

FAQs About China's Industrial Growth

What is the significance of the non-ferrous metal sector's 9.2% growth?

The strong 9.2% growth in the non-ferrous metal smelting and processing industry indicates robust demand for metals like aluminum, copper, and zinc, which are essential for electronics, construction, and new energy vehicles. This growth outpaces the overall industrial average of 6.8%, suggesting particular strength in sectors that utilize these metals. Copper refining capacity has increased approximately 7.3% year-on-year to support green energy infrastructure, while aluminum processing has expanded to meet demand from the automotive lightweighting trend.

How does the June 2025 industrial growth compare to previous months?

The June 2025 industrial growth rate of 6.8% represents a solid performance compared to the H1 average of 6.4%, indicating a slight acceleration in industrial activity toward the end of the second quarter. The month-on-month growth of 0.50% also suggests continued expansion rather than contraction. This June figure continues a relatively stable growth trajectory throughout 2025, with monthly industrial growth ranging between 5.8% and 7.0% throughout the first half of the year.

What impact is China's NEV sector having on industrial growth?

The NEV sector is emerging as a significant driver of industrial growth, with production increasing by 18.8% YoY in June 2025. This growth contributes to the strong performance in both the automobile manufacturing sector (+11.4%) an

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