Condor Energy Doubles Down on Peru Potential with Major New Raya West Discovery
Condor Energy (ASX: CND) has announced a significant breakthrough in its Peruvian operations, with the identification of Raya West, a new high-potential prospect that could substantially expand the company's already impressive resource base in the offshore Tumbes Basin. The discovery, backed by advanced seismic analysis, positions Condor as a key player in one of South America's most promising hydrocarbon provinces as the company continues to grow hydrocarbon resources.
The Raya West prospect represents a major extension of Condor's existing 575 million barrel Raya Prospect, with advanced seismic analysis revealing multiple stacked hydrocarbon anomalies across an impressive 800-metre section. What makes this discovery particularly exciting is that Raya West exhibits more than twice as many potential hydrocarbon-bearing intervals compared to the substantial Raya prospect.
"Raya West exhibits more than twice as many AVO-positive intervals as the 575 million barrel (2U) Raya Prospect and has the potential to add material volumes to our portfolio," said Managing Director Serge Hayon.
Technical Breakthrough Validates Hydrocarbon Presence
The identification of Raya West stems from sophisticated Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) seismic analysis conducted on Condor's reprocessed 3D seismic data. This advanced technique examines how seismic signals change with increasing distance between source and receiver, providing crucial insights into subsurface fluid content.
Furthermore, the technical analysis has revealed several key indicators that significantly enhance confidence in the prospect. Class II and III AVO anomalies have been confirmed across multiple intervals within the proven Zorritos Formation.
Key technical highlights include:
- Multiple stacked pay potential identified in both Raya and Raya West prospects
- High-confidence hydrocarbon indicators demonstrating geological conformity across both prospects
- Strong seismic support for thick hydrocarbon-bearing reservoir sands over potential 800m gross interval
The geological consistency across both prospects provides exceptional confidence in the interpretation. The AVO-supported intervals terminate cleanly against regional erosional surfaces and bounding faults, creating ideal trapping geometries that align with expected structural models.
| Prospect Comparison | Raya | Raya West |
|---|---|---|
| Current Resource Estimate | 575 million barrels (2U) | Under evaluation |
| AVO-Positive Intervals | Multiple confirmed | 2x more than Raya |
| Water Depth | ~80 metres | Similar shallow water |
| Reservoir Formation | Zorritos Formation | Zorritos Formation |
| Status | Independently assessed | New discovery |
Understanding AVO Analysis: The Science Behind the Discovery
Amplitude Versus Offset (AVO) analysis is a sophisticated seismic technique that examines how reflection amplitudes change with increasing distance between seismic sources and receivers. This method is particularly valuable because different rock types and fluid contents create distinct amplitude patterns.
Why AVO Matters for Investors
In addition to providing technical confidence, AVO analysis offers significant advantages in reducing investment risk. The technique reduces drilling risk by identifying hydrocarbon-bearing intervals before expensive drilling begins.
Moreover, it provides fluid discrimination between oil, gas, and water-bearing sands whilst assessing reservoir quality by indicating porosity and sand thickness. This industry-standard technique is used by major oil companies worldwide for prospect evaluation.
The Class II and III AVO responses identified at both Raya and Raya West are characteristic signatures of oil-bearing reservoirs, particularly when benchmarked against known hydrocarbon accumulations in the same seismic dataset. This technical validation significantly de-risks both prospects for future drilling programmes whilst supporting efforts to grow hydrocarbon resources across their Peruvian portfolio.
How the Technique Works
Seismic reflections are recorded using multiple source-receiver pairs positioned at different offsets but sharing the same midpoint. The reflection amplitude depends on contrasts in velocity and density between layers, properties controlled by rock type and fluid content.
When observed amplitude trends rise with offset (Class II and III behaviour), this can indicate the presence of hydrocarbon-charged sands. Consequently, this provides valuable insight into reservoir characteristics before committing to expensive drilling operations.
Strategic Location in Proven Hydrocarbon Province
Condor's 4,858km² TEA LXXXVI area covers virtually the entire Peruvian offshore Tumbes Basin, positioned in the heart of a proven hydrocarbon province. The strategic value of this acreage becomes clear when examining the surrounding infrastructure and discoveries.
The regional context demonstrates exceptional potential for development. Shallow water depths of 50-1,500 metres enable cost-effective development whilst the area is surrounded by producing fields including historic and current oil and gas operations.
Furthermore, the region benefits from an established petroleum system with proven source rocks and migration pathways, plus existing infrastructure that reduces development costs and timeline risks.
The Raya and Raya West cluster is located adjacent to proven fields, with Raya situated in approximately 80 metres water depth—ideal for conventional drilling and development operations. This shallow-water setting combined with material scale positions both prospects as potentially low-cost, high-return exploration targets that could help grow hydrocarbon resources significantly in the region.
"Together, Raya West and Raya define a high-quality cluster of prospects with material scale and is firming as our preferred future exploration drilling candidate," noted Managing Director Serge Hayon.
Expanding Resource Portfolio with Immediate Catalysts
The identification of Raya West significantly expands Condor's exploration inventory, which already includes an independently assessed 3 billion barrels gross unrisked prospective resources across five key prospects. With Raya West potentially adding substantial additional volumes, the resource base continues growing in one of South America's premier basins.
However, the real value lies in the near-term catalysts that could unlock significant value creation. Resource estimation for Raya West is currently underway, whilst data room preparation incorporating new results will support joint venture partnerships.
Near-term catalysts include:
- Farm-out discussions advancing for both Raya and Raya West prospects
- Drilling candidate selection with the Raya cluster emerging as preferred target
- Resource assessment completion expected in Q1 2025
- Enhanced partnership negotiations supported by improved technical package
The company's 80% interest in the TEA provides substantial leverage to any successful exploration outcomes, while the partnership structure with Jaguar Exploration (20%) offers operational expertise and potential funding support. This positioning enables the company to grow hydrocarbon resources whilst maintaining operational control over key decisions.
Multiple Stacked Pay Potential
Both Raya West and Raya exhibit evidence of several discrete AVO-supported intervals within the proven Zorritos Formation, highlighting potential for extensive hydrocarbon column development. At Raya West, several additional, younger reservoir units are preserved due to different erosional patterns.
This makes the Zorritos Formation reservoir section thicker and potentially more prospective than at Raya. The analysis also identified several small shallow gas accumulations located above and adjacent to the main prospects.
These exhibit strong Class III AVO responses typical of known gas-charged sands in the basin, serving as valuable calibration points within the same seismic volume.
Investment Thesis: Why Condor Energy Merits Attention
Condor Energy has positioned itself at the intersection of technical excellence and strategic opportunity in the offshore Peru market. The Raya West discovery represents more than just another prospect—it validates the company's systematic approach to value creation in underexplored basins.
| Factor | Investment Advantage |
|---|---|
| Technical De-risking | Advanced AVO analysis reduces geological uncertainty |
| Strategic Location | Shallow water, proven basin, existing infrastructure |
| Resource Scale | Multi-billion barrel potential across expanded prospect portfolio |
| Partnership Optionality | Strong data package attracting international joint venture interest |
| Management Experience | 24+ years industry expertise with proven track record |
The combination of Raya and Raya West creates a substantial drilling target with multiple stacked pay zones, significantly increasing the probability of commercial discovery. With resource estimation underway and partnering discussions advancing, the company appears well-positioned to capitalise on this technical breakthrough.
Geological Confidence Indicators
The AVO-supported intervals at Raya West terminate cleanly against both regional erosional surfaces and bounding faults, reflecting trapping geometry that aligns with expected structural models. The overlying regional sealing shale displays no AVO response, consistent with an effective top seal.
When benchmarked against known hydrocarbon accumulations in the basin, the Class II and Class III anomalies within the Zorritos Formation display characteristics more typical of oil-bearing reservoirs. This provides additional technical confidence in the interpretation and reduces geological risk.
What Are the Next Steps for Development?
Condor is undertaking volumetric analysis to establish prospective resource estimates for Raya West. Results from this ongoing work will be incorporated into the company's data room to support engagement with potential joint venture partners.
The enhanced technical package strengthens Condor's position in farm-out negotiations whilst providing multiple development pathways. For instance, the company can now offer partners a cluster approach that significantly increases the probability of commercial success.
Key upcoming milestones:
- Q1 2025: Raya West resource estimate completion
- Ongoing: Joint venture partner discussions
- 2025: Potential drilling programme initiation
- Medium-term: Development planning for commercial discoveries
For investors seeking exposure to high-impact exploration in a proven hydrocarbon province, Condor's systematic approach to prospect generation and technical validation offers a compelling opportunity. The company's ability to identify and de-risk prospects like Raya West demonstrates both technical competence and strategic positioning.
This technical breakthrough positions Condor Energy to substantially grow hydrocarbon resources in Peru's emerging offshore frontier whilst maintaining the operational control necessary for value maximisation.
Condor Energy has transformed its Peruvian portfolio with the Raya West discovery, identifying more than twice as many potential hydrocarbon-bearing intervals compared to its existing 575 million barrel Raya prospect. With advanced seismic validation, shallow-water locations, and expanding partnership interest, Condor represents a unique opportunity to participate in material exploration upside in South America's emerging hydrocarbon frontier.
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