Gallium Refinery Deal Transforms Australia-US Critical Minerals Partnership

The global technology landscape increasingly depends on a narrow group of specialised materials that enable everything from smartphone processors to military defence systems. Among these strategic resources, gallium stands out as a particularly crucial element whose scarcity and geographic concentration create significant vulnerabilities for nations seeking technological sovereignty. The recent gallium refinery in Australia-US minerals deal represents a transformative development in critical minerals energy security strategies, demonstrating how nations are restructuring supply chains to reduce dependencies on potentially unreliable sources.

This transformation reflects broader shifts in how nations approach resource security in an era of increasing geopolitical tensions and supply chain disruptions. Furthermore, the movement toward allied sourcing arrangements and domestic processing capacity represents a fundamental restructuring of global mineral flows, with implications that extend far beyond simple commodity trading relationships.

What Makes Gallium Essential to Modern Defence and Technology Infrastructure?

Understanding Gallium's Role in Semiconductor Manufacturing

Gallium's unique properties make it indispensable for high-performance electronic applications that require superior frequency response and thermal stability. The element serves as a foundational component in compound semiconductors, particularly gallium arsenide (GaAs) and gallium nitride (GaN), which offer significant performance advantages over traditional silicon-based alternatives in specific applications.

These gallium-based compounds enable devices to operate at much higher frequencies while maintaining efficiency levels that silicon cannot match. For defence applications, this translates to radar systems with enhanced detection capabilities, satellite communications equipment with improved signal processing, and electronic warfare systems that can operate across broader frequency spectrums.

Clean energy systems increasingly rely on gallium-based components for power conversion and management applications. In addition, solar panel inverters, wind turbine control systems, and electric vehicle charging infrastructure all benefit from the superior efficiency characteristics that gallium compounds provide, particularly in high-power switching applications where energy losses must be minimised.

The technical specifications for defence-grade gallium compounds are particularly stringent, requiring purity levels that exceed 99.9999% and crystalline structures that meet precise dimensional tolerances. These requirements limit the number of facilities worldwide capable of producing material suitable for strategic applications, creating additional supply chain vulnerabilities.

Current Global Supply Chain Vulnerabilities

Geographic concentration represents the most significant vulnerability in gallium supply chains, with processing capacity heavily concentrated in specific regions that may face geopolitical restrictions or trade war impacts. This concentration creates single points of failure that can impact global technology production with relatively minor supply interruptions.

The processing requirements for gallium extraction and purification involve sophisticated chemical processes that require substantial capital investment and technical expertise. These barriers to entry limit the number of potential suppliers and create dependencies on existing processing facilities that may be subject to export controls or other trade restrictions.

Quality control standards for gallium products vary significantly between different end-use applications, with defence and aerospace applications requiring the highest purity levels and most stringent testing protocols. This specialisation means that not all gallium production facilities can supply material suitable for strategic applications, further limiting supply options for critical industries.

Alternative sourcing options remain limited due to the technical complexity of gallium extraction and the substantial infrastructure investments required to establish new processing facilities. However, primary production typically occurs as a byproduct of aluminium processing, while secondary recovery from electronic waste requires different technical approaches and faces challenges related to collection and processing economics.

How Does Australia's New Refinery Project Reshape Global Gallium Markets?

Production Capacity and Market Share Analysis

The Wagerup facility represents a significant expansion of Western-aligned gallium processing capacity, with projections indicating the operation will contribute approximately 10% of global gallium production once fully operational. This market share represents a substantial shift in production geography and provides technology industries with enhanced supply chain diversification options.

The facility's integration with existing alumina operations provides significant operational advantages through shared infrastructure and established logistics networks. Consequently, this co-location strategy reduces capital requirements while leveraging existing expertise in bauxite processing and mineral extraction technologies.

Market entry timing positions the facility to capture growing demand from defence modernisation programmes and clean energy expansion initiatives. The late 2026 operational target aligns with projected increases in gallium consumption across multiple sectors, potentially providing favourable pricing conditions during the initial production phase.

Scaling potential remains substantial given the resource base available through Alcoa's bauxite processing operations at Wagerup and Pinjarra, which collectively employ approximately 2,500 personnel and process significant quantities of bauxite annually. This established infrastructure provides a foundation for potential production expansion if market conditions warrant increased capacity.

Integration with Existing Alumina Operations

The co-processing approach leverages gallium's natural occurrence in bauxite ore, where it typically exists at concentrations requiring specialised extraction techniques to achieve commercial viability. By integrating gallium recovery into existing alumina production workflows, the facility can capture value from material streams that would otherwise be discarded or underutilised.

Operational synergies include:

• Shared electrical and water infrastructure reducing capital requirements
• Established environmental management systems and regulatory compliance frameworks
• Existing workforce expertise in mineral processing and chemical handling procedures
• Transportation and logistics networks already optimised for bulk commodity movements
• Quality control laboratories and analytical capabilities suitable for specialty metal production

The extraction process involves treating bauxite residue (red mud) through specialised chemical processes that separate gallium from other trace elements. For instance, this approach provides environmental benefits by extracting additional value from processing waste streams while reducing overall disposal requirements.

Cost advantages through integration include reduced overhead allocation, shared maintenance resources, and economies of scale in procurement of processing chemicals and consumables. These operational efficiencies provide competitive advantages compared to standalone gallium processing facilities that must bear full infrastructure costs independently.

Technical integration challenges involve managing different processing timelines and quality requirements between alumina and gallium production streams. However, gallium processing requires more stringent purity controls and specialised handling procedures that may require segregated processing areas and dedicated equipment.

What Strategic Benefits Does the Australia-US Partnership Deliver?

Supply Chain Diversification Outcomes

The partnership framework addresses strategic vulnerabilities by creating alternative sourcing channels for critical technology inputs, reducing dependence on potentially unreliable suppliers in regions subject to geopolitical tensions or trade restrictions. This diversification provides both countries with enhanced supply security for defence and technology applications.

Geographic distribution benefits include:

• Reduced single-source dependencies for defence contractors and technology manufacturers
• Alternative logistics routes avoiding potential shipping disruptions or trade chokepoints
• Enhanced stockpiling options through allied nation production facilities
• Improved negotiating position with existing suppliers through credible alternatives
• Strategic reserve capabilities located in stable, allied territories

Technology sovereignty implications extend beyond simple supply diversification to include knowledge transfer and capability development. The partnership enables both nations to maintain domestic expertise in critical mineral processing, reducing technological dependencies that could become strategic liabilities during periods of international tension.

Resilience building occurs through multiple redundancies in supply networks, processing capabilities, and technical expertise. This approach provides insurance against various disruption scenarios including natural disasters, facility accidents, trade disputes, or deliberate supply restrictions by hostile nations.

The partnership framework also enables coordination of strategic reserves and emergency allocation procedures, ensuring that critical material supplies remain available for essential applications even during periods of supply constraint or market disruption.

Economic Development and Employment Impact

The project generates direct economic benefits through job creation, capital investment, and increased industrial activity in Western Australia's established mining and processing sector. Construction phase employment of 200 positions provides immediate economic stimulus, while ongoing operational roles contribute to long-term regional employment stability.

Regional economic multiplier effects include:

• Increased demand for local engineering and construction services during project development
• Enhanced requirements for specialised maintenance and technical support services
• Additional freight and logistics activity supporting increased production volumes
• Expanded procurement opportunities for regional suppliers and service providers
• Increased local tax revenue and royalty payments supporting public services

The integration with Alcoa's existing workforce of approximately 2,500 employees across Wagerup and Pinjarra operations provides opportunities for skill development and career advancement within the expanded processing complex. Furthermore, this internal development approach reduces recruitment costs while building specialised expertise in gallium processing technologies.

Long-term employment prospects depend on market demand growth and potential facility expansion. The scalable nature of the operation, combined with Australia's substantial bauxite resources, provides opportunities for increased employment if gallium demand continues growing as projected across defence and clean energy sectors.

Economic development extends beyond direct employment to include research and development opportunities, potential technology transfer benefits, and enhanced Australia's position in global critical minerals supply chains, potentially attracting additional investment in related processing and manufacturing capabilities.

How Do Export Restrictions Drive Critical Minerals Policy Innovation?

Geopolitical Responses to Supply Chain Disruption

Export restrictions on critical minerals have catalysed comprehensive policy responses across allied nations, with governments recognising that technological sovereignty requires secure access to essential raw materials. These policy frameworks represent significant shifts from traditional free-market approaches toward more interventionist strategies designed to ensure strategic supply security.

Government intervention mechanisms include:

• Direct equity investment in critical mineral processing facilities
• Concessional financing arrangements reducing private sector investment risks
• Export credit guarantees facilitating international partnership development
• Strategic reserve programmes ensuring emergency supply availability
• Research and development funding for alternative processing technologies

The intensity of policy innovation reflects the strategic importance of maintaining technological capabilities in an increasingly competitive international environment. Nations that lack secure access to critical minerals face potential vulnerabilities in defence systems, technology manufacturing, and clean energy infrastructure development.

International cooperation frameworks have emerged as essential tools for managing critical mineral supply chain risks. These partnerships enable burden-sharing for infrastructure investments while creating mutual dependencies that discourage export restrictions between allied nations. The US critical minerals policy demonstrates how nations are adapting their regulatory frameworks to address these challenges.

Policy effectiveness depends on sustained political commitment and adequate financing to support long-term industrial development. The substantial government investment requirements mean that critical mineral strategies must maintain support across different political administrations to achieve their intended strategic objectives.

Investment Incentive Structures and Financing Models

The Australian government's A$200 million concessional equity investment represents a sophisticated risk-sharing arrangement designed to attract private sector participation while ensuring strategic objectives are met. This financing model addresses market failures where strategic benefits exceed private returns, justifying public sector involvement.

Export credit agency involvement through the US Export-Import Bank provides additional financial support while strengthening bilateral partnership arrangements. This institutional backing reduces financing costs and provides political risk insurance for international investors participating in strategic projects.

Risk allocation strategies balance public sector strategic interests with private sector commercial requirements. Government equity participation ensures strategic objectives are prioritised while private partners contribute operational expertise and market knowledge essential for commercial success.

The financing model's effectiveness will be measured through successful project completion, achievement of production targets, and contribution to broader strategic supply chain objectives. However, long-term success requires balancing commercial viability with strategic priorities to ensure sustainable operations without ongoing government subsidies.

What Does the $8.5 Billion Critical Minerals Framework Include Beyond Gallium?

Priority Project Pipeline Analysis

The comprehensive Australia-US Critical Minerals Framework encompasses a diverse portfolio of projects designed to address supply chain vulnerabilities across multiple strategic materials. This A$8.5 billion initiative represents one of the largest coordinated efforts to develop alternative supply chains for technology-critical materials.

Processing facility development receives the highest priority due to the immediate need for domestic refining capabilities across multiple critical minerals. These facilities will address bottlenecks in current supply chains where raw materials must be processed overseas before returning as finished products for technology applications.

Mining operations expansion focuses on developing domestic production capabilities for materials currently imported from potentially unreliable sources. In addition, this category includes both new mining projects and expansion of existing operations to increase production of strategic materials.

Infrastructure development encompasses transportation, power generation, and specialised facilities required to support expanded critical minerals production. This includes port facilities, specialised rail connections, and power infrastructure capable of supporting energy-intensive processing operations.

The timeline prioritisation reflects urgency levels across different materials and applications, with defence-critical materials receiving accelerated development schedules compared to materials primarily used in commercial applications. This strategic critical minerals reserve approach ensures priority allocation of resources.

Comparative Analysis with Other Critical Mineral Initiatives

Lithium processing capacity represents the largest single component of the framework, reflecting Australia's substantial lithium resources and growing demand from battery manufacturing industries. These projects focus on developing domestic processing capabilities to capture additional value from lithium exports beyond raw ore shipments.

Rare earth element separation facilities address strategic vulnerabilities in permanent magnet supply chains essential for defence applications and wind turbine manufacturing. These technically complex facilities require substantial investment and specialised expertise currently concentrated in limited geographic regions.

Battery material supply chain integration projects focus on developing complete supply chains for energy storage applications, including processing facilities for nickel, cobalt, and manganese in addition to lithium processing capacity. Furthermore, this integrated approach aims to position Australia as a comprehensive supplier for battery manufacturing industries.

Key Strategic Materials Included:

• Lithium processing: Battery-grade lithium hydroxide and carbonate production
• Rare earth separation: Permanent magnet material processing capabilities
• Nickel refining: Battery-grade nickel sulfate and other specialised forms
• Graphite processing: Battery anode material preparation and purification
• Cobalt processing: Battery cathode material preparation from various feedstocks

The comprehensive scope reflects recognition that supply chain security requires addressing multiple materials simultaneously rather than focusing on individual commodities in isolation. This system-wide approach provides enhanced resilience against various disruption scenarios.

How Will This Project Influence Future Australia-US Trade Relations?

Bilateral Trade Agreement Implications

The gallium refinery in Australia-US minerals deal establishes precedents for critical minerals trade arrangements that could reshape broader bilateral commercial relationships. These arrangements may include preferential access terms, strategic reserve sharing agreements, and coordinated export policies that prioritise allied nation access during supply constraints.

Trade provisions specifically addressing critical minerals are likely to include:

• Preferential tariff treatment for strategic materials traded between allied nations
• Emergency allocation procedures ensuring continued access during supply disruptions
• Joint stockpiling arrangements reducing individual nation storage requirements
• Technology transfer agreements facilitating knowledge sharing in processing techniques
• Coordinated export controls preventing strategic materials from reaching hostile nations

The bilateral framework may serve as a template for similar arrangements with other allied nations facing comparable supply chain vulnerabilities. However, this approach could create networks of preferential trading relationships that enhance collective security while maintaining market-based pricing mechanisms for commercial transactions.

Investment protection agreements will likely be enhanced to cover critical minerals projects, providing additional security for cross-border investments in strategic supply chain infrastructure. These protections reduce political risks associated with long-term industrial investments in allied nations.

Regional Economic Integration Effects

The Australia-US partnership in critical minerals may catalyse broader regional integration initiatives involving other Indo-Pacific allies seeking enhanced supply chain security. Countries like Japan, South Korea, and potentially India could participate in expanded frameworks addressing shared vulnerabilities.

Supply chain partnership expansion could include:

• Joint development of processing facilities serving multiple allied nations
• Coordinated procurement strategies leveraging collective purchasing power
• Shared research and development programmes advancing processing technologies
• Integrated logistics networks optimising transportation and distribution systems
• Common standards development ensuring interoperability across supply chains

Third-country collaboration opportunities may emerge as the framework demonstrates successful models for critical minerals partnership development. Consequently, European allies facing similar supply chain challenges could adapt successful elements of the Australia-US approach for their specific circumstances.

Asia-Pacific strategic positioning benefits include enhanced economic integration among democratic allies while reducing dependencies on potentially unreliable suppliers. This economic cooperation strengthens broader strategic partnerships while providing tangible commercial benefits to participating nations.

Regional manufacturing capabilities may be enhanced as secure supply chains enable expanded production of technology products requiring critical minerals. This development could support broader goals of technology sovereignty and industrial resilience across allied nations.

What Operational Challenges Must the Refinery Project Navigate?

Technical Implementation Requirements

Gallium extraction from bauxite residue requires sophisticated chemical processing techniques that must achieve extremely high purity levels while managing complex waste streams and environmental requirements. The technical challenges involve optimising extraction efficiency while maintaining product quality standards essential for defence and technology applications.

Extraction optimisation considerations include:

• Chemical process design maximising gallium recovery rates from low-concentration feedstocks
• Purification techniques achieving 99.9999% purity levels required for semiconductor applications
• Waste management systems handling chemical residues safely and economically
• Quality control procedures ensuring consistent product specifications
• Environmental monitoring systems maintaining compliance with regulatory requirements

Process integration with existing alumina operations requires careful management of different processing schedules, chemical compatibility, and quality requirements. The gallium extraction process must operate without disrupting established alumina production workflows while meeting its own technical specifications.

Specialised equipment requirements include corrosion-resistant materials capable of handling aggressive chemical environments, precision control systems maintaining exact process parameters, and analytical equipment providing real-time quality monitoring throughout the production process.

Workforce training programmes must develop specialised expertise in gallium processing techniques while maintaining existing capabilities in alumina production. Furthermore, this dual competency requirement presents training challenges that must be addressed through comprehensive skill development programmes that reflect broader mining industry innovation trends.

Market Entry and Competition Dynamics

Market entry strategies must address established relationships between existing gallium suppliers and technology manufacturers while demonstrating superior reliability and quality compared to alternative sources. This challenge requires developing credible supply commitments and establishing technical credentials with demanding industrial customers.

Competitive positioning considerations include:

• Pricing strategies balancing commercial viability with competitive market positioning
• Quality differentiation emphasising superior purity and consistency compared to alternative sources
• Supply reliability commitments providing customers with confidence in long-term availability
• Technical support services helping customers optimise their processes for Australian gallium products
• Strategic partnerships with major technology companies ensuring market access

Customer acquisition requires extensive technical qualification processes where potential buyers must verify that Australian gallium meets their specific requirements. These qualification procedures can take months or years, requiring sustained investment in technical support and sample provision.

Long-term supply agreement negotiations must balance customer requirements for price stability with producer needs for flexibility in response to changing market conditions. These agreements often include complex terms addressing quality standards, delivery schedules, and force majeure provisions.

Market share growth will depend on the facility's ability to demonstrate reliability advantages compared to existing suppliers while maintaining competitive pricing. The strategic nature of gallium applications means that customers value supply security as much as cost considerations.

How Does This Development Position Australia in Global Critical Minerals Competition?

Strategic Positioning Analysis

Australia's entry into gallium processing represents a significant enhancement of its position in global critical minerals competition, building upon existing advantages in resource endowment and established mining expertise. The integration of processing capabilities with resource extraction provides complete supply chain control that few other nations can match.

Competitive advantages include:

• Abundant bauxite resources providing secure feedstock for gallium extraction
• Established mining and processing infrastructure reducing capital requirements
• Stable political and regulatory environment attracting long-term investment
• Strategic alliance relationships providing preferential market access
• Technical expertise in mineral processing adaptable to specialty materials

The facility positions Australia as a reliable alternative to suppliers in regions subject to geopolitical tensions or export restrictions, providing technology companies with enhanced supply chain diversification options. This strategic positioning creates value beyond simple commodity pricing considerations.

Resource endowment leverage strategies focus on developing value-added processing capabilities rather than exporting raw materials for processing elsewhere. However, this approach captures additional economic value while providing greater strategic control over critical material supplies.

Technology advancement opportunities include developing improved extraction techniques, enhanced purification processes, and specialised product forms tailored to specific applications. These innovations could provide sustainable competitive advantages in global markets.

Future Expansion and Scaling Scenarios

Expansion potential remains substantial given Australia's extensive bauxite resources and the scalable nature of gallium extraction processes. Additional processing capacity could be developed at other alumina facilities or through dedicated gallium processing plants if market demand growth warrants increased production.

Scaling scenarios include:

• Near-term expansion: Increasing production capacity at Wagerup through additional extraction equipment
• Medium-term development: Establishing gallium processing at other Australian alumina facilities
• Long-term possibilities: Developing dedicated gallium processing facilities independent of alumina operations
• Technology advancement: Implementing improved extraction techniques increasing recovery rates
• Market diversification: Developing specialised gallium products for emerging applications

Market demand projections suggest substantial growth potential across defence modernisation, clean energy expansion, and emerging technology applications. This demand growth could support significant capacity expansion beyond initial facility capabilities.

Investment requirements for expansion would benefit from proven operational experience and established market relationships developed through the initial project. Furthermore, this foundation reduces risks associated with subsequent investments while providing economies of scale in operations.

The timeline for potential expansion depends on market development rates and competing supply additions from other regions. Strategic timing of capacity additions will be crucial for maintaining competitive position while avoiding oversupply conditions.

What Investment Opportunities Does This Create for Stakeholders?

Direct Investment Channels

The gallium refinery project creates multiple investment opportunities across different risk profiles and investment horizons. Direct equity participation through partnership arrangements with established operators provides exposure to strategic supply chain development while leveraging existing technical expertise and market relationships.

Investment opportunities include:

• Equity partnerships: Direct ownership stakes in processing facilities with established operators
• Infrastructure investment: Specialised equipment, power systems, and transportation infrastructure
• Technology licensing: Proprietary processing techniques and equipment systems
• Supply chain integration: Downstream processing and product development capabilities
• Service providers: Engineering, maintenance, and specialised technical services

Infrastructure development requirements create opportunities for specialised contractors and equipment suppliers capable of supporting technically demanding processing operations. These investments often provide steady returns through long-term service contracts with processing facilities.

Technology provider partnerships offer opportunities to develop and commercialise improved extraction and processing techniques that could be applied at multiple facilities globally. These partnerships can provide ongoing revenue streams through licensing arrangements and technical support services.

Risk management strategies for direct investment include portfolio diversification across multiple projects, partnership with experienced operators, and geographic distribution of investments to reduce single-facility dependencies.

Indirect Market Benefits

Regional economic development creates opportunities for service providers, suppliers, and supporting industries benefiting from increased industrial activity in Western Australia's mining and processing sector. These indirect benefits often provide more stable returns than direct commodity exposure while participating in strategic supply chain development.

Supporting industry opportunities include:

• Transportation and logistics: Specialised handling and shipping services for high-purity materials
• Technical services: Engineering, maintenance, and analytical testing capabilities
• Financial services: Trade finance, risk management, and specialised insurance products
• Regional development: Real estate, hospitality, and local service providers
• Supply chain integration: Downstream processing and value-added manufacturing

The multiplier effects of critical minerals development extend beyond direct project impacts to include enhanced regional capabilities, knowledge transfer, and industrial ecosystem development. These benefits create sustained economic value that continues beyond individual project lifecycles.

Investment in supporting capabilities positions stakeholders to benefit from potential expansion of critical minerals processing in Australia while providing diversified exposure to strategic supply chain development initiatives.

Long-term value creation depends on successful project implementation and continued government support for critical minerals strategy. However, the strategic nature of these investments provides some protection against market volatility while offering participation in long-term structural changes in global supply chains.

Strategic Implications for Global Critical Minerals Security

Long-term Market Transformation Expectations

The Australia-US gallium refinery partnership represents a fundamental shift toward allied nation supply chain development that will likely reshape global critical minerals markets over the next decade. This transformation involves moving from efficiency-focused supply chains toward resilience-prioritised networks that balance cost considerations with supply security requirements.

Market restructuring timelines suggest that significant changes in supply chain geography will occur gradually as new processing facilities become operational and establish market relationships. The transition period will likely involve parallel supply systems as industries gradually shift toward more secure sourcing arrangements while maintaining existing supplier relationships.

Projected transformation phases:

• 2025-2027: Initial facility construction and market preparation
• 2027-2029: Production ramp-up and customer qualification processes
• 2029-2032: Market share establishment and supply relationship development
• 2032-2035: Potential expansion and additional facility development
• 2035+: Mature alternative supply chains operating at scale

Technology sovereignty advancement represents a critical strategic objective that extends beyond simple supply diversification to include maintaining domestic capabilities in critical technologies. This approach ensures that allied nations retain the ability to produce essential defence and technology systems independently if international supply chains are disrupted.

International cooperation model replication could see similar frameworks developed between other allied nations facing comparable supply chain vulnerabilities. Consequently, the Australia-US model provides a template that could be adapted for different materials and different partner combinations while maintaining core principles of strategic cooperation and mutual benefit.

Key Success Metrics and Monitoring Framework

Success measurement for the gallium refinery in Australia-US minerals deal extends beyond traditional financial metrics to include strategic objectives related to supply chain security, technology sovereignty, and international cooperation effectiveness. These comprehensive metrics ensure that strategic goals remain prioritised throughout project implementation and operation.

Critical performance indicators:

• Production milestones: Achievement of targeted production volumes and quality standards
• Market penetration: Successful customer acquisition and supply relationship development
• Strategic supply: Percentage of allied nation gallium requirements met through secure sources
• Economic impact: Job creation, regional development, and multiplier effects
• Technology advancement: Process improvements and innovation development

Monitoring frameworks must track both commercial performance and strategic objective achievement to ensure that government investments deliver intended benefits. Regular assessment of supply chain vulnerabilities and competitive positioning will inform decisions about potential expansion or additional investment requirements.

The long-term success of critical minerals strategy depends on sustained political commitment across multiple governments and continued private sector participation in strategically important but commercially challenging investments. Balancing these requirements will determine whether current initiatives achieve their strategic objectives or require modification to maintain effectiveness.

Important Disclaimer: This analysis is based on information available as of November 2025 and includes forward-looking statements and projections that involve uncertainty. Actual results may differ significantly from projections due to market conditions, technological developments, regulatory changes, and other factors beyond the control of project participants. Investment decisions should be based on comprehensive due diligence and professional advice appropriate to individual circumstances.

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