Forum Mining: Leading Canada’s Copper Revolution in 2025

The Copper Revolution: How Forum Mining is Building Canada's Next Major Producer

Forum Mining stands as a remarkable anomaly in today's copper development landscape – the only single-asset copper company actively constructing a greenfield mine globally. Based in Saskatchewan, Canada, the company is transforming its Mcilvenna Bay (Mac Bay) project into what could become one of North America's premier copper operations, with production targeted for mid-2026.

Currently at 50% completion, the project represents a significant advancement in North American copper supply at a time when the market faces growing structural deficits. With copper's critical role in electrification and renewable energy, Forum's development timeline positions it to capitalize on projected supply shortages and copper price insights.

The Strategic Importance of Saskatchewan

Saskatchewan consistently ranks as Canada's top mining jurisdiction according to the Fraser Institute, offering Forum Mining several distinct advantages:

• Pragmatic, resource-focused provincial government with streamlined permitting processes
• Competitive tax structure creating favorable after-tax economics
• Stable regulatory environment with predictable policies
• Population of just 1.1 million with strong natural resource heritage
• Extension of the proven Flin Flon greenstone belt with established mining infrastructure

This jurisdictional advantage provides Forum with operational certainty that many global copper developers lack, particularly compared to projects in higher-risk regions of Latin America and Africa where effective tax rates can reach 40-60%.

"Saskatchewan has a very natural resources focus. That's what drives the economy—very pragmatic and practical government." – Dan Mirrison, CEO/Executive Chairman

From Exploration to Production: Forum Mining's Journey

Forum Mining's evolution from explorer to near-term producer reflects the vision of its leadership team, particularly Executive Chairman and CEO Dan Mirrison, who brings a unique perspective shaped by his experiences at global trading giant Glencore. After joining Glencore in late 2010 and rising through its trading ranks specializing in copper cathodes, blister copper, and concentrates, Mirrison eventually transitioned to asset management before joining Forum in 2020.

This trading background has informed Forum's strategic approach to development, with a focus on:

1. Expanding resource size to demonstrate district-scale potential
2. Maintaining a clean capital structure without streaming or royalty encumbrances
3. Securing strategic partnerships with industry leaders
4. Preserving maximum exposure to future copper price appreciation

Milestone Achievements Since 2020

Since 2020, Forum has achieved several transformative milestones that have significantly de-risked the project:

• Quadrupled the resource size at Mac Bay through successful exploration campaigns
• Made two significant new discoveries (Tesla Zone in July 2022 and Bridge Zone in September 2023)
• Secured landmark Indigenous partnership agreements ensuring social license to operate
• Obtained all necessary permits for mine construction
• Arranged comprehensive project financing without dilutive streaming arrangements
• Completed 50% of mine construction on schedule despite industry-wide challenges
• Stockpiled 60,000 tons of ore (targeting 270,000 tons before startup)

The company has accomplished this despite facing multiple challenges, including port shutdowns, government funding delays, wildfire interruptions, and the normal complexities of mine development in a northern climate.

Strategic Partnerships Powering Development

Forum has assembled an impressive roster of strategic investors and technical partners that significantly enhance the project's credibility and execution capabilities:

World-Class Financial Backing

• Agnico Eagle: 13.5% ownership with over $275 million invested, bringing tier-one mining expertise
• Fairfax Financial: 22% ownership, led by renowned investor Prem Watsa, whose investment track record rivals Warren Buffett's
• Canadian Growth Fund: Government-backed strategic investment supporting critical minerals development

"I think you can make a very easy argument that they [Agnico Eagle] are the best mining company in the world." – Dan Mirrison

Technical Excellence

• G Mining Services: Integrated project management team with proven track record at Fruta del Norte and other successful projects
• Implementation of Integrated Project Management Team (IPMT) approach rather than traditional EPCM model
• Owner-operator mining philosophy ensuring tight control over operations

This shareholder base provides Forum with both financial stability and technical expertise, addressing two of the primary risks in mine development – financing and execution.

Mac Bay: A Multi-Generational Copper Asset

District-Scale Potential

Mac Bay represents just 1% of Forum's expansive 140,000-hectare land package, suggesting significant exploration upside beyond the initial development. The project features:

• A multi-decade mine life with potential for 60+ years of operations
• First-quartile cost structure among global copper producers
• Multiple metals revenue streams (copper, zinc, gold, silver)
• Scalable production potential through the Tesla and Bridge zones

The company has deliberately maintained a clean capital structure without streaming arrangements to preserve full exposure to all metal streams, positioning it for maximum financial flexibility as production begins.

Strategic Growth Pipeline

Forum has outlined a clear growth strategy that balances near-term production with long-term expansion:

1. Complete construction and achieve commercial production (mid-2026)
2. Release Tesla Zone resource and technical studies (2H 2026)
3. Complete Bridge Zone resource definition (2027)
4. Evaluate potential production expansion to 10,000 tons per day (doubling current capacity)

This phased approach allows Forum to generate cash flow while simultaneously advancing its growth pipeline, creating a self-funding development model similar to successful multi-decade operations like Agnico Eagle's LaRonde mine, which started at 2,000 tons per day and underwent multiple expansions over its 45-year history.

The Copper Market: Capital Intensity as Price Indicator

Understanding True Replacement Costs

Forum's leadership takes a supply-focused approach to copper price forecasting, emphasizing capital intensity as the key metric. Historically, copper prices have tracked capital intensity on a near 1:1 ratio:

This suggests significant potential upside in copper prices as the market adjusts to the true cost of bringing new supply online. Forum's strategy centers on entering production at the beginning of this anticipated price cycle, building a strong balance sheet during the upswing, and positioning for potential acquisitions when the cycle eventually turns.

"Capital intensity grew from $3,000 a ton to $8,000 a ton. And what did the copper price do? Went very similar from $3,000 to $8,000 over that decade… I think where the price needs to go is actually to the $23-24,000 a ton. So what's that? Like roughly $10-11 a pound of copper." – Dan Mirrison

Supply Constraints vs. Demand Growth

While much market analysis focuses on copper demand growth through electrification, renewable energy, and infrastructure development, Forum emphasizes the supply challenges:

• Limited new project development globally (Forum being the only single-asset copper company building a greenfield mine)
• Declining grades at existing operations (average grades have fallen ~25% in the last decade)
• Increasing technical challenges in new developments (deeper deposits, complex metallurgy)
• Rising capital and operating costs (inflation, energy prices, regulatory compliance)
• Jurisdictional challenges in traditional copper-producing regions (political instability, resource nationalism)

These supply constraints, rather than demand projections, may ultimately drive price discovery in the copper market over the coming decade, leading to significant changes in the global copper supply forecast.

The Valuation Opportunity: Developer-to-Producer Transition

Understanding the Valuation Gap

Forum currently trades at what management describes as "the cheapest it's ever been in its history" when adjusted for risk. This valuation disconnect appears to stem from:

1. Perceived vs. Actual Risk: The market continues to apply a high-risk discount despite significant de-risking through permitting, financing, and construction progress
2. DCF Limitations: Traditional discounted cash flow models capture only 20 years of value (with 75% in the first 10 years), undervaluing Forum's multi-generational asset
3. Pre-Production Discount: Developers typically trade at steep discounts until 6 months before production

Similar valuation patterns have been observed in other successful developer-to-producer transitions, including:

• Artemis Gold: 500% share price appreciation in 18 months approaching production
• Lundin Gold: Significant rerating as Fruta del Norte entered production
• G Mining Ventures: Strong performance as Tocantinzinho advanced toward production

This suggests Forum may be approaching an inflection point for significant share price appreciation as it moves toward production in mid-2026, making it an interesting target for copper investment strategies.

Near-Term Catalysts and Long-Term Vision

Upcoming Milestones

Over the next 12-24 months, Forum has outlined several potential catalysts:

• Monthly construction updates showing continued progress toward 2026 production
• Further stockpile growth from current 60,000 tons toward 270,000-ton target
• Commissioning activities beginning in early 2026
• First production targeted for mid-2026
• Tesla Zone maiden resource publication
• Initial technical studies on Phase 2 expansion to 10,000 tons per day

These milestones should provide investors with regular updates on Forum's transition from developer to producer.

Building a Multi-Generational Mining House

Looking beyond initial production, Forum envisions Mac Bay as a stepping stone to a much larger operation. Management draws parallels to Agnico Eagle's LaRonde mine, which started at 2,000 tons per day and expanded multiple times over its 45-year history.

With its district-scale land package and multiple discovery zones, Forum believes Mac Bay could follow a similar growth trajectory, potentially becoming a cornerstone asset that drives company growth for decades, establishing Forum as a major player in the North American copper market alongside other promising regions like Canada's mining investment.

The Capital Intensity Factor: Why Copper Prices May Need to Double

The Economics of Replacement Supply

One of the most compelling aspects of Forum's market outlook is the historical relationship between copper capital intensity and price:

• Capital intensity represents the upfront capital cost required to build a mine divided by annual production capacity
• This metric provides a clear picture of the true replacement cost for each ton of new copper supply
• The current divergence ($23,000-24,000/ton capital intensity vs. $9,000/ton copper price) is historically unprecedented
• For new projects to achieve reasonable returns, copper prices may need to more than double from current levels

Factors Driving Rising Capital Intensity

Capital intensity serves as a proxy for the true cost of bringing new supply online, incorporating factors such as:

• Rising construction costs (inflation, material prices, labor shortages)
• Declining ore grades (requiring more material to be processed per ton of metal)
• More complex metallurgy (increasing processing costs and recovery challenges)
• Deeper mining requirements (higher underground development costs)
• Infrastructure challenges (remote locations, power, water, access)
• Environmental compliance costs (tailings management, water treatment, emissions reduction)
• Social license considerations (community agreements, benefit-sharing mechanisms)

As these factors continue to drive up the cost of new copper projects, the market will eventually need to adjust prices to incentivize sufficient new supply. This reality is further supported by recent industry innovation trends seeking to address these challenges.

Forum Mining's Distinctive Approach to Development

Financial Strategy: Preserving Upside Potential

Unlike many developers who use streaming, royalties, or offtake agreements to fund development, Forum has maintained a clean capital structure that preserves full exposure to:

• Copper price upside as the market potentially rebalances
• Gold, silver, and zinc byproduct credits enhancing overall economics
• Future expansion potential through Tesla and Bridge zones
• Acquisition opportunities as the cycle matures

This approach maximizes financial flexibility and shareholder returns as the project enters production.

Technical Excellence: Integrated Project Management

Forum's partnership with G Mining Services employs an Integrated Project Management Team (IPMT) approach rather than traditional EPCM (Engineering, Procurement, Construction Management). This model:

• Aligns incentives between the developer and contractor
• Creates owner-like accountability for all project participants
• Reduces interface risks between different contractors
• Improves cost control and schedule adherence

This approach has proven successful at projects like Fruta del Norte and positions Forum to minimize execution risk during the critical construction phase, as highlighted in a World Economic Forum analysis of mining industry innovations.

Regional Advantage: Saskatchewan's Mining Heritage

Forum benefits from operating in Saskatchewan, which offers:

• Experienced mining workforce with generational knowledge
• Established supply chains and service providers
• Well-developed infrastructure (power, transportation, communications)
• Streamlined permitting processes designed for resource development
• Community support for responsible mining development

These factors combine to create a more predictable development environment compared to many other jurisdictions globally.

Investment Considerations: Evaluating the Opportunity

Key Metrics for Investors

For investors considering Forum Mining, several key metrics warrant attention:

1. Construction Progress: Monthly updates showing advancement toward the 2026 production target
2. Resource Growth: Upcoming resource estimates for Tesla and Bridge zones
3. Copper Price Trajectory: Movement toward the capital intensity equilibrium point
4. Production Expansion Studies: Technical and economic assessments of potential throughput increases
5. Cash Flow Projections: Initial production rates and operating costs as commissioning approaches

These indicators will provide visibility into Forum's transition from developer to producer and its long-term growth potential.

Risk Management Perspective

Forum has systematically addressed the primary risks in mine development:

• Financing Risk: Mitigated through strategic partnerships with Agnico Eagle, Fairfax, and government backing
• Technical Risk: Addressed through partnership with G Mining Services and experienced management team
• Permitting Risk: Eliminated with all necessary permits secured
• Construction Risk: Managed through IPMT approach and regular milestone achievements
• Commodity Price Risk: Partially hedged through polymetallic nature of deposit (copper, zinc, gold, silver)

This comprehensive risk management approach positions Forum more favorably than many peers at similar development stages, as detailed in a fascinating BBC analysis of copper's future in the global economy.

Key Takeaways: Why Forum Mining Matters

1. Forum Mining represents a unique opportunity as the only single-asset copper developer actively constructing a mine globally
2. The Mac Bay project is 50% complete and targeting production by mid-2026
3. Saskatchewan provides significant jurisdictional advantages for mining development
4. Forum has assembled world-class partners including Agnico Eagle, Fairfax, and G Mining Services
5. The project offers multi-decade production potential with significant expansion opportunities
6. Copper's capital intensity suggests substantial price upside potential over the coming years
7. Forum's clean capital structure preserves maximum exposure to future metal price appreciation
8. The company is approaching the typical inflection point where developer valuations begin to rerate

For investors seeking exposure to copper's structural supply deficit, Forum Mining and the copper revolution offers a compelling combination of near-term production, significant growth potential, and jurisdictional advantages in a sector facing chronic underinvestment.

FAQ: Forum Mining and the Copper Revolution

How does Forum Mining's cost structure compare to other copper producers?

Forum Mining's Mac Bay project is expected to operate in the first quartile of the global cost curve, benefiting from favorable metallurgy, infrastructure access, and a competitive tax regime in Saskatchewan. The project's byproduct credits from zinc, gold, and silver further enhance its cost position, creating natural hedges against copper price volatility.

What makes the Tesla and Bridge zone discoveries significant?

These discoveries (Tesla Zone in July 2022 and Bridge Zone in September 2023) demonstrate the district-scale potential of Forum's land package, potentially allowing for production expansion beyond the initial development plan. The Bridge Zone particularly validates the company's geological model by connecting previously separate mineralized areas, suggesting continuity of mineralization across the property.

How is Forum Mining addressing environmental and social considerations?

Forum has secured landmark partnership agreements with Indigenous communities and implemented comprehensive environmental management plans. The project benefits from access to hydroelectric power, reducing its carbon footprint compared to many global copper operations that rely on diesel or coal-fired power generation.

What differentiates Forum from other copper developers?

Unlike many developers that remain years from production, Forum is actively constructing its mine with 50% completion achieved. The company has also maintained a clean capital structure without streaming arrangements, preserving full exposure to future metal prices. Additionally, Forum's unique combination of strategic partners (Agnico Eagle, Fairfax, G Mining Services) provides technical and financial support that few junior developers can match.

How might copper's supply-demand dynamics evolve over the next decade?

Industry forecasts suggest a growing structural deficit in copper supply, potentially reaching several million tonnes annually by

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